BGC Chief Raises Alarm Over Potential Machine Games Duty Hike Ahead of Autumn Budget

Grainne Hurst, who serves as CEO of the Betting and Gaming Council, issued a direct warning this week about the effects of raising Machine Games Duty from its current 20 percent level to 40 percent on land-based electronic gaming machines. According to her statements the change could trigger up to 16,000 job losses along with the closure of nearly 1,500 betting shops and as many as 34 casinos across the United Kingdom. Hurst presented these figures during discussions ahead of the Autumn Budget while noting the sector already faces rising operational costs and the cumulative impact of earlier regulatory adjustments.

Details Behind the Industry Warning

The Betting and Gaming Council represents the main trade body for the UK gambling sector and Hurst spoke on its behalf when she highlighted modelling that shows the Treasury might ultimately lose £124 million in revenue because of reduced economic activity. That projection comes from EY’s Economic modelling of potential MGD increases report, September 2026, which examined how higher taxation could shrink the taxable base through business closures and lower consumer spending. Observers note the land-based gaming segment operates under tight margins and any abrupt tax increase would compound existing pressures from inflation, energy costs, and previous compliance requirements.

Hurst explained that electronic gaming machines form a core revenue stream for many high-street betting shops and smaller casino venues. Data from the modelling indicates that doubling the duty rate would force operators to reassess site viability on a large scale, leading to the projected job cuts and closures. Those who have studied similar tax shifts in other jurisdictions have seen parallel patterns where higher rates prompted consolidation rather than sustained growth in government receipts.

Broader Context of Existing Sector Pressures

Land-based operators have already adapted to several rounds of regulatory tightening in recent years, including restrictions on stake sizes and enhanced responsible gambling measures. These changes reduced turnover in some locations and left businesses more vulnerable to further cost increases. The proposed Machine Games Duty adjustment arrives against that backdrop, and Hurst emphasised that many venues operate with limited ability to absorb an additional 20 percentage points in tax without passing costs onto customers or reducing headcount.

Research compiled for the EY report, September 2026, factored in multiplier effects across supply chains and local economies that depend on these venues. When betting shops and casinos close, nearby suppliers of equipment, security services, and maintenance also experience knock-on reductions in demand. The modelling therefore treats the £124 million net loss as a conservative estimate that accounts for both direct tax shortfalls and secondary economic contraction.

Stakeholder Reactions and Forward Outlook

Industry representatives have pointed out that the Autumn Budget process will determine whether the duty rate change moves forward. Treasury officials have not yet confirmed any specific plans for Machine Games Duty, yet the BGC statement serves as an early signal of potential consequences. Those who track fiscal policy note that similar warnings preceded past tax adjustments in the gambling sector and sometimes prompted refinements to the final proposals.

Figures released alongside the modelling show that land-based electronic gaming machines currently contribute a steady stream of duty payments while supporting employment in regions where alternative job opportunities remain limited. Any large-scale reduction in that footprint would therefore affect both national revenue collection and regional labour markets simultaneously. Hurst’s intervention places these interconnected outcomes on record before final budget decisions are taken.

Conclusion

The warning delivered by Grainne Hurst on behalf of the Betting and Gaming Council centres on concrete projections derived from the EY modelling exercise dated September 2026. Up to 16,000 jobs, 1,500 betting shops, and 34 casinos stand at risk under the proposed Machine Games Duty increase, with the Treasury potentially facing a £124 million shortfall once reduced activity is taken into account. The statement arrives amid documented pressures from prior regulatory changes and rising costs, providing policymakers with a detailed industry perspective ahead of the Autumn Budget.